Tom Demogenes
Tom and Sue Demogenes
Luxury Waterfront Team
Cape Coral, FL 33914

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January 2013 Newsletter





Cape Coral up 32% from Dec 2012 - Fort Myers Up 26%
Cape Breaks $100 Per Square Ft. Barrier

rising market.jpgPer the charts below, Cape Coral median home prices hit $190,000 in December, up an astonishing 32% from one year earlier. This follows a 20 % year-over-year price increase from Dec 2010 to Dec 2011. Cape Coral has now had 28 straight months of year-over-year home price increases, and appreciated by 52% in 24 months. Home prices in the Cape also broke through the $100 per square foot milestone ($105). It has been years since Cape homes seen either of these price levels.....and I strongly believe the highest appreciation is yet to come.

 Fort Myers homes which are traditionally 25% higher priced than Cape Coral, also saw an impressive 26% gain in median year-over-year prices. Fort Myers broke the $100 per sq ft barrier in mid 2012 and rose to $116 per square foot in December.

Tom's 2013 Predictions

 crystal ball with dollar.jpg* Median home prices in the first month or two of 2013 will actually fall below December's $190 K prices, before a price explosion erupts beginning in March. This projection is based on my analysis of MLS info for "Pending" and "Active" home Listings.

* Average home prices in the Cape will reach $220,000 (16% increase over Dec 2012) within the first six months of the year. Cape Coral average prices will reach $230 K sometime in 2013, and possibly even $240 K...a big jump from $190 K.

Fort Myers home prices will exceed $250,000 within six months.

* Even though the Cape has had 28 straight months of year-over-year price increases, I believe that at least 11 months of this year will exceed same month prices of 2012. My gut tells me to go out on a limb and predict it will be all 12 months, but 40 straight months of price increases is almost too much to ask for, even in our exploding market.

* Gulf access lot prices will jump 20% or more this year, as will new home construction. The spike in new home building will naturally bring up prices on existing home prices.
* Distressed home sales (foreclosures and short sales) will again play a smaller role in our market, which will continue to apply upward pressure on home prices
Client Question of the Month

question.jpgWith Lee County prices, and Cape Coral prices in particular, rising so much in the past few years, is it too late to purchase?

Tom: No, for four reasons:

1. Steadily climbing listing prices, low inventory, and low interest rates are all strong indicators that prices will continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Sue and I will continue to invest heavily in Cape Coral real estate until we see signs to discourage us. We see none on the horizon.

2. As long time clients know, I'm a student of historical real estate trends. In no previous real estate cycle (from way before the Great Depression) has the new "peak" not exceeded the previous peak. Cape Coral's last peak was Jan 2006, when Median Home Sales Prices hit $381,482, and average price per square foot was $200. In this new upward cycle we are at $190,000 (and $105 per sq ft), so there is a lot more appreciation in the coming years than what we've experienced in the past few years.
3. Reverting to history again, the upturn of real estate cycles has always been one and half to twice as long as the downturn. As Jan 2006 was our peak and Aug 2010 was our bottom, that is 54 months of downward trend. If history is our friend and guide, then we have somewhere between 77-108 months of cyclical upturn, and we are only at 28 months of improvement. I'm going to let you do the rest of the math, but we will definitely NOT be reaching our peak in 2013.
4. The rest of the country is just now coming off the bottom or their real estate cycle. Many of these homeowners are Baby Boomers who will want to retire to another state or own a second home during retirement. In what warm weather state do you think a lot to those Baby Boomers will choose to own a home?


Timing the Real Estate Market


March 2013

Topics: Short Sales vs Foreclosures - Major CC Gov't Happenings - Future Appreciation in SWFL

February 2013

Topics: Snowbirds Race to Snatch up Florida Housing - What are the Best Gulf Access Home Areas?

                              December 2012

Topics: Cape Coral Prices Highest in 5 Years - Million Dollar Homes Selling Again



Tom Demogenes | 239-357-3312 | Contact Us 
4100 SW 27th Pl - Cape Coral, FL 33914
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