Nov. Cape Home Prices Increase, But Inventory Keeps Rising
As anticipated, November home prices witnessed a decent jump in prices, in part due to a $6M home sale which you'll read about herein. Inventory rose for the 5th straight month, and it may not be until the mid-to late Q1 2024 that we see a decrease in inventory (a further drop in interest rates will certainly help).
As December 2022 was the bottom of the SWFL market in the current cycle, starting next month we will report the same month year-over-year comparisons. We'll also have our annual "Timing the SWFL Real Estate Market" report out in January.
Cape Coral Dec 2022 vs. November 2023
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Dec 2022 (Low Point This Cycle) |
November 2023 |
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Cape Coral |
351 Sales $465,000
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344 Sales $509,000 + 9% |
Lee County Dec 2022 vs. November 2023
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Dec 2022 (Low Point This Cycle) |
November 2023
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Lee County |
987 Sales $547,000 |
913 Sales $545,000 - $2,000 |
Cape Coral Gulf-Access Homes: Oct = 50 Gulf Access Sales with Avg Price of $846,000
Nov = 51 Gulf Access Sales with Avg Price of $1,033,000
Cape Coral $1M+ Homes: Oct = 12 $1M+ Sales with Avg Price of $1,450,000 Highest $3,250,000
Nov = 14 $1M+ Sales with Avg Price of $1,977,000 Highest $6,000,000
All Cape Coral Price Stats are skewed slightly upward due to the $6M home sale.
C.C. Inventory: Over 7 months of available homes - we are now barely entering a "Buyers Market".
NAR Issues 2024 Real Estate Forecast
National Assoc of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun looked at the current state of the U.S home market and shared his 2024 outlook. He said home sales will likely decline by 18% once all 2023 numbers are in, and that’s on the heels of a 17% drop last year. These drops are caused by 20-year high interest rates and a lack of available homes.
Yun states, “Pent-up sellers and buyers cannot wait any longer. People will begin to say, ‘life goes on’”. “Listings will steadily show up, and new homes sales will continue to do well” He also noted that international buyers have declined, but once they return to the market, there will be a boost in buying.
Yun believes that the 30-year mortgage rate has crested. He states that the number of home sales will rise by 15% next year, and mortgage rates will hover in the 6 to 7% range by spring, and he anticipates that more sellers and buyers will enter the market. Tom: If Dr. Yun’s projections are proven correct, this will be very encouraging and timely news for SWFL real estate, as winter and spring are our most active sales months.
1 in 3 U.S. Buyers Use All-Cash – Highest Share in a Decade:
Just over 33% of U.S. home purchases in September were made in cash, up from 29.5% a year earlier and the highest share in nearly a decade, according to a report from Redfin.
In Florida, the percentage of cash sales was higher than the national average in all six metros included in the study, ranging from 38% in Tampa to 49% in West Palm Beach. SWFL is typically included in the Tampa metro.
All-cash purchases are making up a bigger piece of the home buying pie for two reasons. Affluent Americans who can already afford to pay cash are more apt to do so in an expensive housing market – and elevated mortgage rates make buying a home in cash and avoiding interest and loan fees altogether more financially appealing.
Florida Islands Named ‘Most Beautiful Places in The State’
The United States is home to all sorts of alluring locations, from jaw-dropping waterfalls to vast deserts to picturesque buildings and architecture. If you’re thinking about visiting these spots, Conde’ Nast Traveler pinpointed the “most beautiful” places in every state. According to the writers, Florida’s most beautiful place is the Sanibel and Captiva Islands! Here’s why this famous pair of islands are worth the visit:
“The sister islands have long drawn visitors with their biking trails, wildlife, and calm Gulf Coast beaches. Sanibel is particularly famous for being the seashell capital of the world. Meanwhile, Captiva is known for its untouched sand dunes and charming seaside hotels”. Lisa: If you needed another reason to love or visit our fabulous area, here it is!
Facts & Stats and Tom’s Musings
1 in 3 Sellers Granting Buyer Concessions: According to Redfin, home sellers gave concessions to buyers in 35% of U.S. home sales during the third quarter of 2023 – about the same as one year earlier but up from 28% two years ago. Jenna: Sellers are more conciliatory in today's market, but we've still been able to bring reasonable buyers and sellers together.
Miami Luxury Prices Soar as Billionaires Move In: RE investors are building more $50M-plus condos in S. Fla. Demand grows from an uptick in ultra-rich celebrities and business people wanting to call South Florida home. A condo on Fisher Island is under contract for $90M. Billionaire Jeff Bezos is just one of the high-profile names to relocate to South Florida.
NAR Releases 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers: In the face of high interest rates and rising home prices, the typical home buyer’s income rose 22% to $107K. 32% of buyers were first-timers, and 89% of all buyers used a RE agent.
First-time buyers averaged 35 years old and repeat buyers were 58 years old. 19% purchased a multi-generational home. The median distance moved was 20 miles, a decline from 50 miles in 2022. The typical home seller was 60 years old and lived in their homes for 10 years before selling.
Older Condo Woes Make It Harder to Buy/Sell Units: Buyers in some older condos can’t get traditional financing because the associations have made insurance trade-offs as they deal with skyrocketing expenses. This leads to sellers having to sell their condos for a lower price. Tom: I've never been an advocate of buying condos for investment, and am now even less inclined to recommend them.
Are Stalled Buyer Spending, Saving Differently? - Many frustrated would-be home buyers are deferring their first house purchase due to high home prices and high interest rates. Instead they may be spending more money that would have gone toward a house on home renovations, vacations, college savings accounts, or student debt payoff.
Tom’s Not That Funny Joke of the Month: Investor: “I currently have a fortune in the stock market”. His Jealous and Curious Friend: “How did you do that?”. Investor: “Well, I started out with a much larger fortune”.